Blocked weather pattern traps storms over the United Kingdom, keeping rain and flooding risk high

A pattern that refuses to move

Rain has fallen for days. The clouds have not cleared. Across the United Kingdom, downpours continue as a weather pattern remains stuck in place. This stalled setup has kept low pressure systems over western Europe, sending repeated bands of rain across the country.

More than one hundred areas face flooding. The Environment Agency has issued 101 flood warnings and 169 flood alerts in England, with additional warnings active in Scotland and Wales. Ground is saturated. Rivers are already swollen. Another spell of rain is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Where flooding risk is highest

Flood alerts and warnings remain active across multiple regions. England carries the highest number, with flood defences already protecting around 16,000 properties. Even so, about 300 properties have already been flooded.

The Environment Agency has warned of significant groundwater flooding risks in Dorset, England and Wiltshire, England. River flooding impacts are expected on the Somerset Levels, England, with further risks in the East Midlands, Worcestershire, and Gloucestershire.

In Scotland, rain continues across the east under two yellow Met Office warnings. In Wales, flood alerts remain active as rivers respond to days of heavy rain.

Towns under waterlogged skies

The scale of rainfall has been stark. In Aboyne, Aberdeenshire, Scotland, 376 millimeters of rain has been recorded this February alone, with more rain expected in the coming days. The town has already seen nearly half of its typical annual rainfall.

Further south, Worcestershire and the Isle of Wight have both recorded close to their February average rainfall in just the first week of the month. This followed an already wet January. Fields are heavy with water. Roads glisten. Streams spill into lanes.

Why the rain keeps returning

Low pressure systems have stalled across the United Kingdom and western Europe. The cause sits farther north. A large area of high pressure remains locked over Scandinavia, acting as a roadblock. Weather systems cannot move east as they usually do. They slow. They stall. Rain falls again and again.

This setup is known as a blocked weather pattern. Small shifts in the position of the blocking high can change impacts across the United Kingdom. When the high pressure sits over the country in winter, weather can turn dry, sunny, and cold. When it sits just to the north, cold air can spill south from north east Europe, producing severe winter conditions.

The role of the jet stream

The blocked pattern is driven by changes in the jet stream, the fast moving river of wind high in the atmosphere. Normally, the jet stream flows west to east, guiding weather systems across the Atlantic. At times, its path bends into deep curves.

High pressure becomes trapped beneath these curves. The jet stream weakens. Low pressure systems struggle to push through. The same weather lingers over the same places for days or weeks. Eventually, renewed energy in the jet stream or stronger low pressure systems can break the block.

Is there a break in sight

There are early signs of a short break late in the week. Low pressure is expected to make some progress eastward on Saturday, allowing a northerly wind to develop. Temperatures will fall. Some wintry showers are likely. Skies may brighten for a time.

This pause will be brief. Rain is forecast to return on Sunday as winds strengthen again. As milder rain meets colder air, a temporary spell of snow may reach low levels across northern England and Scotland on Sunday morning.

What communities are being told

The Environment Agency has urged the public to remain vigilant as further rain is expected. Flooding remains possible where rivers are already high and ground remains saturated. Transport disruption is likely in parts of eastern Scotland under yellow rain warnings.

Rain will push in from the south west of England on Tuesday and spread north east across England and Wales. In eastern Scotland, rain continues through Wednesday. The pattern remains unsettled. The rain does not fully clear.