Powerful Heat Dome to Grip Europe as Saharan Air Drives Temperatures Toward 45°C

Early summer heat strengthens across the continent

Europe is facing its first major heatwave of the season, even before summer has officially begun on the calendar. Meteorologists warn that a powerful heat dome will spread across much of the continent in the coming days, trapping very hot air from the Sahara and driving temperatures sharply above late-June averages.

The hottest conditions are expected first over the Iberian Peninsula, then across France and Italy, before the heat expands northward and eastward.

The air mass is intense.

In parts of Portugal, Spain and France, temperatures could climb as high as 45 degrees Celsius. Across wider areas of western and central Europe, readings are expected to rise far above normal for this part of June.

Heat dome forms over western and central Europe

According to the meteorological portal Severe Weather Europe, a large area of high air pressure is forming over western and central Europe. This pattern is known as a heat dome because it traps hot air near the surface and limits mixing with cooler air above.

Meteorologists state that the main cause is a massive high-pressure system holding Saharan heat in place.

Under this setup, the lower atmosphere keeps warming. The heat builds during the day, then the same broad pressure field helps maintain the hot pattern for several days. In stronger and more stable cases, this type of weather pattern can last for several days or even weeks.

Temperatures up to 18 degrees above average

Forecasts indicate that temperatures may be 14 to 18 degrees Celsius above average for late June, with locally even higher departures possible.

A further concern is the dry state of the ground across parts of Europe after a record-warm end to May. Dry soil reduces natural cooling through evaporation. With less evaporative cooling, the surface can heat more efficiently, adding further pressure to daytime temperatures.

The result is a long period of extreme heat.

During the weekend and into next week, higher-than-usual air pressure is expected over western and central Europe. The area of high pressure is forecast to expand and remain above average almost everywhere, except the far southeast, the far north of Europe and the North Atlantic.

Portugal, Spain and France face the strongest heat

The highest temperatures are expected on the Iberian Peninsula. In Portugal and Spain, values up to 45 degrees Celsius are possible at the beginning of next week.

France is also facing a very difficult period. Some weather models suggest that central, northern and western parts of the country could reach 41 to 44 degrees Celsius on Monday.

In Paris, France, and other major cities, several days with temperatures between 35 and 40 degrees Celsius are expected. That is up to 15 degrees Celsius above average for late June.

The city heat will linger. Day after day, the atmosphere will remain loaded with very warm air.

Heat expands toward northern and eastern Europe

The heatwave will spread from northwestern Africa toward southwestern and western Europe from the weekend, then continue gradually toward the north and east. The pattern is expected to dominate much of Europe during the rest of June.

Germany, the Benelux countries and the United Kingdom are also expected to feel the heat during the weekend, with temperatures mostly above 30 degrees Celsius.

In Italy, temperatures are forecast between 35 and 40 degrees Celsius. In the Po Valley, Italy, local readings could be even higher at the beginning of next week.

The Balkans will also come under the influence of this hot air mass, but current forecasts do not indicate extremes comparable to those expected in France or Spain. Across much of the region, temperatures should mostly range between 30 and 35 degrees Celsius.

What a heat dome does to the atmosphere

A heat dome develops when a strong high-pressure system remains over a large area. It acts as a lid, preventing warm air from rising freely and reducing its mixing with cooler layers of the atmosphere.

Near the ground, the air heats further.

This weather pattern can bring very high temperatures, and at times record-level heat, to the area beneath it. The term is used when a broad zone of high-pressure air stays over a large part of a continent. When the pattern is very stable and extreme, it can persist for several days or even weeks.

Similar meteorological conditions have been among the key causes of some of the most intense heatwaves in recent years across Europe, the United States and Canada.

Drought and wildfire risk increase

Meteorologists warn that a prolonged period of high temperatures could worsen drought in many parts of Europe and raise the risk of wildfires.

With the strong high-pressure system expected to remain over Europe until the end of the month, there is a possibility that the heatwave will continue through the final days of June. The heat will not only be strong, but persistent, with the same pattern holding warm air over large parts of the continent.