Coastal El Niño Brings Heavy Rains and Flood Risks to Peru’s Expanding Agricultural Export Sector

Coastal El Niño begins affecting northern Peru

A developing coastal El Niño pattern is raising concern across Peru as heavy rainfall begins to affect agricultural regions along the country’s northern Pacific coast.

The climate event occurs when ocean waters off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador become unusually warm for several months. Warmer sea surface temperatures increase evaporation and moisture in the atmosphere. The result is often intense rainfall along coastal regions that are normally dry.

Early impacts are already visible on plantations in northern Peru. Local fruit crops have begun to suffer damage as rainfall increases across the region.

Agricultural producers warn that even a weak event could cause significant disruption to the country’s rapidly growing export sector.

“It was not in our plans," said Gabriel Amaro, leader of the national agricultural producers’ association, speaking about the rainfall linked to the event.

Fruit plantations already experiencing losses

The first wave of damage has already reached agricultural fields. Approximately 6,000 hectares of fruit plantations in northern Peru have been affected by heavy rain.

Producers are now preparing for the possibility that the event could strengthen in the coming months. Climate forecasts indicate the coastal El Niño may intensify from a weak phase to a moderate event before July.

Farmers are especially concerned about the effect on current harvest cycles. Peru is presently harvesting avocados, while harvests for blueberries, citrus fruits, and pomegranates are expected to begin in May.

Persistent rainfall can damage fruit quality and weaken agricultural infrastructure. Roads, irrigation systems, and packing facilities may also be affected during prolonged rain episodes.

Record exports now facing weather uncertainty

Peru’s agricultural export sector has grown rapidly in recent years. The country has transformed itself from a mining dominated economy into one of the world’s leading fruit exporters.

Last year the sector reached a record value of 15 billion dollars in exports, representing a 17 percent increase compared with the previous year.

Peruvian farms now ship large volumes of produce to international markets, including:

• Blueberries
• Grapes
• Avocados
• Cocoa beans
• Asparagus
• Mangoes
• Citrus fruits

Major destinations include the United States, China, and several countries across Europe.

Despite the strong performance in recent years, agricultural leaders expect export growth to slow if rainfall continues to intensify.

“This year export growth will most likely be lower," Amaro said.

Climate agencies warn of heavier rains beginning in March

Peru’s climate monitoring agency ENFEN forecasts above normal rainfall along the northern coast starting in March. Forecasters do not rule out the possibility of extreme rainfall events during the season.

The heavy rain pattern has already begun to affect agricultural planning. Mango production has reportedly dropped by 10 percent in some areas following earlier rainfall episodes.

Blueberry crops face additional risks. Moist conditions can encourage fungal growth on fruit, while heat following rainfall can later cause drying and crop damage.

The concern is especially significant because Peru currently holds the position of the world’s largest exporter of blueberries. Blueberry exports alone generated about 2.5 billion dollars last year.

Floods and landslides affecting communities and infrastructure

Heavy rainfall has already caused damage to infrastructure and communities across several regions. Floods and landslides during the current rainy season have affected roughly 85,000 people, according to Peru’s disaster management agency CENEPRED.

Transport routes and essential services have been disrupted in multiple areas. In response to the damage, the government declared a state of emergency across 14 regions.

Economic losses could also grow rapidly if the rainfall intensifies. The Lima Chamber of Commerce estimates that a weak to moderate coastal El Niño could produce daily losses exceeding 291 million soles, equivalent to about 85 million dollars, across agriculture, trade, and manufacturing sectors in seven regions.

Memories of a destructive El Niño event

The current situation brings back memories of the powerful coastal El Niño event in 2017. That episode caused widespread flooding across Peru.

The disaster resulted in 162 deaths and economic losses estimated at about 2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.

Meteorologists are also monitoring the possibility that a broader global El Niño event could develop later this year. Such a development would influence weather patterns worldwide, affecting rainfall and temperatures across multiple continents.