Australia weather clash: polar blast brings snow and record cold as Cyclone Narelle targets western coast

A rare clash of seasons unfolds across Australia

A striking contrast is unfolding across Australia. Two powerful systems are developing at the same time. One from the tropics. One from the Antarctic.

A tropical cyclone is tracking toward the western coast. At the same time, a surge of polar air is pushing into the southeast.

The map shows a split. Warmth in one region. Winter in another.

Both systems are unusual.

Only a handful of cyclones have approached Perth, Western Australia within 200 kilometers since 1970. At the same time, the cold outbreak is expected to deliver the coldest March conditions in decades.

Thunderstorms spread across New South Wales and the ACT

After a warm start to the week, a cool southwesterly change has already reached southern coasts. Storms have begun forming.

The activity builds.

Thunderstorms develop across inland New South Wales, Australia during the morning. They intensify as they move toward the ranges and coast through the afternoon.

Severe conditions are possible across a broad corridor:

• Hunter region, New South Wales, Australia
• central ranges, New South Wales, Australia
• Snowy Mountains, New South Wales, Australia

Hazards include damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. Forecast guidance also highlights a risk of more intense storms, with giant hail, destructive winds and flash flooding.

Storm timing is defined:

• Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia around midday
• Sydney, New South Wales, Australia early to mid-afternoon

The storms build quickly. They intensify fast.

Temperatures plunge as polar air surges north

Behind the storms, colder air advances. A mass of polar air, recently near the Antarctic coastline, spreads across southeastern Australia.

By Friday, temperatures fall as much as 13°C below average. Some areas face their coldest March day in decades.


Forecast highlights include:

• Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia near 15°C, coldest March day in 18 years
• Orange, New South Wales, Australia near 11°C, coldest March day in 39 years
• Goulburn, New South Wales, Australia near 12°C, potential March record
• Cooma, New South Wales, Australia near 11°C, potential March record
• Bega, New South Wales, Australia near 16°C, coldest March day in 32 years
• Thredbo, New South Wales, Australia near 2°C, coldest March day in 14 years

In Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, a forecast high near 16°C would mark the coldest March day in seven years. In Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, 20°C would be the lowest in five years.

The shift is abrupt. The air feels wintry.

Snow develops across alpine regions

The colder air mass supports snowfall across elevated terrain. Snow is expected across the mainland Alps through Friday.

There is also potential for light snow reaching the highest peaks of the Central Tablelands, New South Wales, Australia. This remains uncommon before May.

In Tasmania, snow settles above approximately 1,000 meters.

Winter arrives early. Brief, but noticeable.

Tasman low brings rain, gales and dangerous seas

As the cold air interacts with warmer conditions, a low-pressure system forms off the coast of New South Wales, Australia.

This Tasman low strengthens quickly.

On Friday, rain and strong winds impact eastern Victoria, Australia and southeast New South Wales, Australia. Rainfall totals may reach up to 100 millimeters in East Gippsland, Victoria, Australia.

Wind gusts near the coast approach 90 km/h, with even stronger winds offshore.

The ocean responds.

Waves and swells build above five meters south of Illawarra, New South Wales, Australia, with hazardous surf extending north toward the Hunter coast.

Conditions ease gradually through the weekend as the system moves away.

Cyclone Narelle approaches Western Australia

While the southeast deals with cold and storms, the west prepares for a tropical system.

Cyclone Narelle is nearing the coast of Western Australia, Australia after a long path across the ocean. The system is expected to make landfall near Shark Bay, Western Australia, Australia as a severe category 3 cyclone.

Ahead of the storm, a broad band of tropical moisture spreads across the region.

Perth, Western Australia, Australia is forecast to receive more than 24 hours of continuous rainfall beginning Friday morning. Rainfall totals could approach 100 millimeters over two days, potentially setting a March record.

Heavy rain also spreads across Albany, Mandurah, Bunbury and Geraldton.

Near the cyclone’s core, destructive winds develop along the Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts before moving inland.

Gales extend inland. Rain spreads wide.

The system remains powerful even after landfall.